Asher Rogovy is the Chief Investment Officer at Magnifina, LLC, a New York-based investment advisor that takes a long-term view with their client’s portfolios. He explains rising inflation and equity price risk this way, “Inflation is when prices rise, and this includes asset prices. Over the long-term stock prices rise along with inflation, as do other investment assets. The key here is long-term, because inflation may cause short-term volatility in stock prices. Stock prices are sensitive to interest rates, which are affected by inflation expectations.” Rogovy further explains that this isn’t the 1970s economy, ”Anyone investing during the 1970s remembers the damage caused by the oil crisis. In this case, persistent inflation held stock prices down for a long time. However, today’s economy is structurally different. In the 1970s, many manufacturing stocks were hurt as the cost of energy rose which cut profit margins. Today’s service-based stocks are less sensitive to input prices.”
Says Rogovy, “In the US, the central bank does not pay debt with the money it creates. Rather, it lends money at its targeted interest rate and the private sector employs that capital more productively. The money created is paid back, which is a crucial reason this monetary policy doesn’t produce hyperinflation.”
“CDs are a single step up from savings accounts in terms of both risk and reward,” he says. “The increased risk is because a CD must be held to its maturity, whereas savings accounts allow withdrawals at any time.”
Determining the tax rates that apply to those investments is a function of how long you have owned them. “For federal tax, the difference between short-term and long-term gains is whether the asset has been held for over one year continuously. The federal long-term capital gains tax is significantly lower than the short-term rate for most investors,” says Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina LLC, a New York-based investment advisory.
For example, long-term capital gains are taxed at no more than 15%, while short-term capital gains are taxed at the rate you pay on your tax return—which can be significantly higher than 15%, depending on how much you earn. “Because the long-term rate is lower, investors who have held a profit for 11 months may consider waiting another month before realizing the profit,” Rogovy says.
More generally, Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina, suggests that it’s best to avoid nominal assets in favor of real assets when inflation’s on the upswing. Real assets, like stocks and real estate, have prices that fluctuate or vary freely. Nominal assets, like CDs and traditional bonds, are priced based on the fixed interest they pay and will lose value in inflationary times.
“Moderna’s role in fighting the pandemic provided some significant benefits,” said Asher Rogovy, who is the Chief Investment Officer at Magnifina, LLC. “Operation Warp Speed provided Moderna with $1.53 billion to help its R&D and production capacity. The new supply chain will be reusable after the pandemic and Moderna should be able to produce new therapies at scale much quicker.”
“Everyone is working to measure a company’s true market value,” Asher Rogovy, Chief Investment Officer at Magnifina, says. “Whoever understands the true value can profit by trading mispriced stocks. Market capitalization represents how investors, on average, estimate true market value. It’s one indicator of market value and a great starting point for analysis.”
If you’re still not investing your money, Asher Rogovy of Magnifina says that it’s never too soon or too late to get your start. “Young investors may feel apprehensive because they are waiting for a good deal when markets fall,” says Rogovy. “The truth is, it’s impossible to time the market perfectly.” Instead, an excellent strategy to avoid missing out is to invest a set amount every month whether markets are up or down. He also suggests you stay disciplined. “Young investors have the benefit of time, and the stock market usually makes new highs within years of a previous top.”
To avoid scams, Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina LLC, emphasizes the importance of thoroughly researching the companies you’re interested in.
Rogovy, too, stresses caution. “It’s certainly appealing to think your stock may increase to 10 times its value, but this is exceedingly rare. If an investment seems too good to be true, it probably is.”
“In terms of performance, we caution our clients that restricting the list of potential investments may result in lower portfolio returns,” says Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina in Manhattan.
“Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”
Warren Buffett wrote these prescient words in The New York Times op-ed in 2008 during the Great Recession. Now, in the bellows of the COVID-19 recession, these words ring true again to Asher Rogovy, chief investment officer at Magnifina.
“The pandemic is certainly the biggest economic event which has occurred for many years [and] there was a violent market reaction in March and April, but many analysts predict that by this time next year, it will no longer be affecting the stock market,” Rogovy said. “This is Buffett’s wisdom: to invest with a very very long-term horizon. He is the master at putting aside emotions and focusing strictly on the numbers. According to our research, only 30% of bear markets since 1950 have lasted more than three and a half years. The most recent one didn’t even last three quarters.”
“Novavax uses a tried-and-true method to produce immunity,” said Asher Rogovy, who is the Chief Investment Officer at Magnifina. “The news media and social media are almost certain to hype up reports of side effects during the first round of vaccination. Vaccine hesitancy is growing, and in 2018 almost half of US citizens refused a flu vaccine. Waiting a few more months for Novavax’s vaccine candidate would appeal to vaccine hesitant individuals who are not fully anti-vax.”